Predicting the coldest winters

Just the other day, I was reading a weather forcecasting site, which had some pictures from the coldest winters on record. Namely the winters of 1947(CET of -1.3C) and 1963(CET of -3.1C) The minimum Central England Temperature, CET, was averaged for the months December through to February of each year . TheWeatherOutlook also states that the winters of 1947, 1963 and 1979 were some of the harshest the UK has seen, bringing very cold, snowy, almost arctic like weather conditions.

I instantly noted a pattern between these years…I’ll give you a second to think about it… Can you spot one?

The Pattern is 16 years. Starting at the winter of1946-47 add 16 years, takes you to 1963, add another 16 years and you get…1979! Since these were the only years mentioned, I did a quick of of reasearch, and yep guess what! 1995 [Source:Sky News] was also a notabley cold, snowy one! ( I remember playing in the snow in 1995 ) Going by this wee theory of mine the next seriously cold, snowy winter will be due in 2011.

A way to check this theory is to go further back in time. Going back 16 years from 1947 takes us to the winter of 1931 which ranks 46th in the seasonal minimum central england temperature between 1878, and 2007 [Met Office]

Going back further still:

1915 ranked 74th coldest [note 1915 was the coldest year between 1914 and 1916]

1899 must have been a blip, becuase it was not really that cold at all.

1883 is ranked 86th, with the average Central England Temperature of +2.17 C

This just further backs up my own thoeries of climate moving in cycles and that this “global warming” is nothing more than the natural shifts which always occur in the climate, after all, in the not not to distant past, the UK was much warmer than it is now. Where were all the cars and planes then?!

Keep an eye out for snow this winter, snow-falls.com